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Sober Optimism? A good vintage?
I prefer a bubbling effervescent optimism.
In March 2023, the Lowy Institute surveyed approximately 2,000 Australians. This study provided insights into the national mood, which the Institute humorously framed as "sober optimism", contrasting the global stereotype of Australians as relentless optimists with a notable fondness for beer and wine.
The Lowy Institute's report on the poll released this week unveiled observations on the varying degrees of optimism and pessimism among Australians.
According to the Institute, Australians display a grounded optimism regarding global developments: More Australians felt safe than the previous year, their faith in democracy remained firm, and they held relative hope about Australia's economic future.
The poll shed light on Australian sentiments concerning safety and perceived threats to national interests. There was an increase in the feelings of safety, with 63% of the population asserting that they felt 'very safe' or 'safe.' "cyberattacks from other countries" emerged as the primary concern among Australians, with 68% identifying it as a 'critical threat' to Australia over the next decade.
Delving into the Global Economy and Trade, the report underscores a consistent level of economic optimism in Australia, despite the prevailing global economic challenges. The poll indicated Australians' faith and hope in Australia's economic performance over the next five years, with 62% expressing optimism. Most people (70%) highlighted the importance of securing supply chains through friendly nations, even if it meant higher costs.
The only question which used the word "optimistic" related to "economic optimism" was: "Thinking about Australia's economic performance in the world. Overall, how optimistic are you about Australia's economic performance in the world over the next five years?"
While global economic hurdles, including persistent inflation, continue to dominate the news, Australians' optimism regarding their country's economic performance over the next five years is 62%. This represents a 17-point drop from the optimistic outlook of 2021 (79%) however it is ten points higher than the record low observed at the onset of the pandemic in 2020.
Interestingly, optimism endures, but its intensity fluctuates. A scant 3% of Australians now express being 'very optimistic' about the economy, a significant decline from the 19% who echoed this sentiment in 2010.
Age Differences
Age plays a role in shaping perceptions of economic performance. For example, 68% of those aged 60 and above are optimistic about Australia's economic future over the next five years, in contrast to just 55% of the 18–29 age group. This disparity aligns with the idea that optimism grows as we age, embodying a "the sun rises every day despite what we do" philosophy.
Reinforcing that age difference in optimism and pessimism about Australia and the world is the University of Melbourne's May 2023 report "Too young to vote but not too young to care: Year 11 students' wellbeing and political voice". The research revealed significant pessimism among Year 11 students about their personal future, Australia's future, and the world's future. Aligning with the Lowy report, only 3% of these students were very optimistic about the future of Australia and the world. Furthermore, 24% were optimistic about Australia's future, with a meagre 14% optimistic about the world. On the other hand, 21% were pessimistic about Australia's future and 31% for the world, while 8% were very pessimistic about Australia's future and a staggering 31% for the world.
Australian Rural Attitudes
I associate Australian farmers with resilience and natural optimism. However, the latest Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey paints a different picture, with optimism within Australia's farming community hitting its lowest level in over four years. Only 11% of farmers anticipate improvements in the agricultural economy over the coming 12 months, indicating rising anxieties within Australia's agricultural sector.
Favourable commodity prices offer a glimmer of hope for those farmers maintaining a positive outlook for the year ahead. Unfortunately, a rising percentage of respondents are bracing for a downturn in conditions, signifying escalating uncertainty within the farming community.
The Centre for Optimism
In response to this growing pessimism, we founded the Centre for Optimism, driven by a mission to foster hope and positivity. Based on our extensive research on optimism and Australian leadership, we aim to clear the pervasive 'fog of pessimism.'
At the Centre, we ask the open-ended questions, "What makes YOU feel optimistic? What makes you feel optimistic?"
We also encourage exercises like "My Optimism Superpower" and "Imagine My Best Self" and host workshops at conferences, workplaces, and schools. Through these endeavours, we empower individuals to envisage and shape a brighter future for themselves, Australia, and the world.
As we navigate the trials of our times, it's time to reshape our mindsets and conversations. By asking, "What's been the best thing in your day?" or exercising our "Optimism Superpower" and imagining our best selves, we can instil hope and positivity in our children, workplaces, communities, and the world. By joining forces, we can overcome this storm and emerge stronger, better, and more optimistic about the future. This is our call to action, our challenge, and one we can and must rise to meet.
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