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Davos and WEF's Avalanche of Pessimism
The 2024 World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, historically a gathering of optimists and a platform for global collaboration, promises a significant shift in its tone to pessimism and fear. While the published theme is "Rebuilding Trust", its leadership promises a pessimistic backdrop.
Last week's "Global Risks Report 2024" launch showcased WEF's growing advocacy for pessimism for 2024 and the decade beyond.
Historical Optimism of the WEF Annual Meeting
Traditionally, the WEF Annual Meeting in Davos represented a beacon of hope, where upbeat national leaders, optimistic business moguls, and intellectuals convened to forge solutions for global challenges. Its leadership firmly believed in the power of international cooperation, economic growth, and technological progress to create a better tomorrow.
Shift to Pessimism
The shift in tone at the WEF Annual Meetings is reflected in the findings of the "Global Risks Report 2024" and so too its 2023 report. The report, largely determined by the Global Risks Perception Survey conducted by Marsh McLennan for WEF, advocates for a dystopian view of the future.
Based on the 2023-2024 Global Risks Perception Survey, the risk report indicates a predominantly pessimistic outlook for the world.
The survey, conducted in September 2023, reveals that most survey respondents anticipate instability and a moderate risk of global catastrophes in the near term, while another 30% expect even more turbulent conditions. This pessimistic view intensifies over the next ten years, with nearly two-thirds of the survey participants predicting a stormy or turbulent future.
Such findings underscore a marked departure from the typically optimistic tone of past Davos meetings, highlighting a growing concern over global risks and uncertainties.
In the launch of the Risks Report, WEF MD Saadia Zahidi referred to a collapse in optimism in the surveyed group, further emphasising the stark contrast to the traditionally hopeful narrative of Davos.
I am not alone in my disappointment with the lack of balance in the Global Risks Report.
Mathias Sundin, Founder and Chairman of the Warp Institute Foundation, believes, "It's bonkers that WEF puts election disruption top of the global risks in 2024. This is the typical pessimistic approach. Project something really negative based on very little information. We have an ongoing large scale war in Europe, that is a real problem and a real global risk. Misinformation in elections is of course something that will be used in elections, but to put it top of the list is bizarre. Instead researchers show that little of the misinformation reaches few people and has little impact. But when you drown yourself in AI doomerism you start seeing AI ghosts."
Gillian Tett, writing in the Financial Times, is also mystified by the negativity of WEF and spots the absence of balanced risk. Gillian says, "here is something odd: this gloom, which seems even worse than during the financial crisis of 2008, has emerged amid a global economy that is not so disastrous. On the contrary, the last forecast from the IMF projects 2024 growth of 2.9 per cent — lower than previous years, but not a depression. It appears, then, that the WEF elite — like American consumers — currently has a profound psychological bias towards pessimism. Why? One possible explanation is that business leaders are ill-equipped to handle current risks: their MBAs trained them to model economic issues, not analyse problems such as war, and the former feature relatively low on the worry list."
Others argue that WEF now scares people for profit and overlooks progress in areas like poverty reduction. Development experts point out its neglect of positive trends, while scientists criticise its focus on worst-case scenarios without acknowledging mitigation efforts. These criticisms urge a more balanced risk approach considering positive and negative risk, opportunity, resilience, innovation, and solutions.
Pessimism is Infectious
The World Economic Forum's Global Risks Perception Survey participant selection process is opaque. Pessimism is infectious; pessimists typically regard themselves as more intelligent and wiser than optimists, and existing participant referral firmly has a substantial weighting in recruitment.
For WEF to be a force for good, a better balance must be struck in the survey participant selection between the pessimistic majority of participants and infectiously optimistic leaders, young and old.
We Need Optimism and Hope for a Brighter Future: Pessimism Paralyses
In Saadia's preface to the Risk Report, she speaks of "unique opportunities to rebuild trust, optimism, and resilience in our institutions and societies."
I asked Robert Masters for his insights, and he told me that "the continuous decline in trust in the corporate and government sectors reflects poorly on today's leadership. Risk assessment is a critical element of any policy or strategy, but the mitigation process must always be framed around positive outcomes. This is where leaders can now become inspirational by setting a framework of realistic optimism in restoring people's trust and confidence."
While the challenges are real, so are the opportunities for positive change. The WEF's role in the global community should extend beyond identifying risks to actively shaping a more optimistic, hopeful and collaborative future.
WEF should heed the message of the President of Singapore, Tharman, who said last year, "Creating bases for optimism has to be our central task everywhere in the world and through global collaboration. We must create bases for optimism to see ourselves through this long storm and to emerge intact; emerge a better place, and it can be done."
Instead of unleashing an avalanche of pessimists on Davos, WEF could focus on getting out into the alpine sunshine of Davos and the world of positive opportunities.
Perhaps at Davos, there could be served more of the good medicine of the World Health Organization's Director-General, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, who said this week, "The coming year will be a test for humanity; a test of whether we give into division, suspicion and narrow nationalism, or whether we can rise above our differences and seek the common good. Despite the many challenges we face, I remain an optimist."
Others recognise the need for positivity at Davos. The Drum editor-in-chief, Gordon Young, has written, "The Drum is doing its bit to accentuate the positive in Davos" and "will be running a panel with Infosys and appearing on one with the FT, which aims to put a positive spin on the opportunities AI offers."
With balanced risk analysis and fostering optimism, we can build a brighter future together, where challenges are met with innovation, hope, and resilience. Davos has the potential to be a beacon of positivity once again, guiding us towards a world of possibilities and shared prosperity.
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