Are We Heading in the Right Direction? Australia’s States and Territories?
A commentary by Victor Perton
On Saturday, I published an essay asking whether Australia is heading in the right direction.
It drew on research publications from Ipsos, SEC Newgate, and the Scanlon Foundation Research Institute, as well as my own research.
Together, those studies showed an Australian optimism gap: the distance between people’s optimism about their own lives and Australia’s longer-term future, and their much weaker confidence that the country is presently moving in the right direction.
Now, Flinders University has added an important new perspective.
Its 2026 Wicked Problems Report draws on the views of more than 15,000 Australians.
Flinders has now conducted the survey twice. The second wave, carried out in November 2025, again asked Australians about the complex problems affecting their everyday lives and which of those problems researchers should help address. This time, for the first time, it also asked about happiness and optimism regarding the future direction of the state or territory where people live.
The Flinders measure brings the question closer to where people live.
Ipsos asks: “Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?”
In June 2026, 41 per cent of Australians said the country was heading in the right direction, while 59 per cent said it was on the wrong track.
Flinders reports the share of people who felt optimistic about the future direction of their state or territory.
The results vary considerably.
Western Australia recorded the highest optimism at 47 per cent. South Australia was at 43.8 per cent, the ACT at 43.6 per cent and Queensland at 41.6 per cent. New South Wales was at 38.9 per cent.
Optimism was much lower in Victoria, where only 26.3 per cent were fairly, very or completely optimistic about the state’s future direction. The figures were similarly low in Tasmania at 23.7 per cent and the Northern Territory at 23.3 per cent.
The Ipsos and Flinders surveys were conducted at different times, ask different questions and use different response formats. The figures should not be compared too precisely.
The broad pattern still matters.
In several states, optimism about local direction is close to the Ipsos national right-direction result. In Victoria, Tasmania and the Northern Territory, confidence in local direction is much weaker.
The Flinders findings also sharpen the optimism gap.
Nationally, 69 per cent of participants described themselves as fairly, very or completely happy. Happiness is different from optimism, yet the comparison is revealing. It is consistent with the wider optimism gap found in other studies: people tend to report greater wellbeing and confidence in their own lives than optimism about the nation, their state or territory, or the direction in which the place they share is moving.
Australians can be reasonably happy in their own lives while remaining doubtful about the direction of the place they share.
That is an important distinction.
Personal happiness asks how life feels now.
Personal optimism asks whether people believe good things will happen in their own lives.
Place-based optimism asks whether people believe their state, territory or country is moving towards a better future.
The Flinders study gives us a clearer picture of that third form of optimism.
As a Melburnian, the Victorian result stands out to me.
Only 26.3 per cent of Victorian participants said they were fairly, very or completely optimistic about Victoria’s future direction. Nearly three-quarters were therefore either unsure or pessimistic.
At the same time, 65.9 per cent of Victorians described themselves as fairly, very or completely happy.
That is the Victorian optimism gap in unusually clear form.
Most Victorians report being happy, while only about one in four express optimism about the state's direction.
The report also gives us clues as to why.
Cost of living remained Victoria’s leading concern, nominated by 63 per cent of Victorian participants. Crime and safety followed at 51 per cent, substantially above the national average of 37 per cent. Housing affordability was selected by 33 per cent, access to healthcare and community care by 23 per cent, and the environment by 20 per cent.
Concern about trust in government and public institutions was also higher in Victoria than nationally, at 18 per cent compared with 15 per cent.
The movement concerned with crime and safety is particularly striking.
In the first Victorian report, based on the November 2024 survey, 37 per cent of Victorians selected crime and safety as one of their three leading concerns. In the second wave, that rose to 51 per cent.
The report describes concern about youth crime, repeat offending and safety in public places. Participants differed over the balance between stronger enforcement, prevention and early intervention.
For people living in Melbourne, place-based optimism is shaped by daily experience.
People notice whether housing feels reachable, whether streets and public spaces feel safe, whether transport works, whether healthcare can be accessed, whether household incomes keep pace with costs and whether governments appear able to respond.
Victoria remains a prosperous, capable and attractive state. Melbourne remains one of the world’s great cities.
These findings suggest that many Victorians are not presently confident that the state is moving towards a better future.
That deserves serious attention.
People judge direction through what they see and experience around them: the affordability of housing, the cost of everyday life, public safety, access to healthcare, the performance of institutions and whether leaders appear capable of solving problems.
They also judge direction through the stories they read, watch, hear and repeat.
Hans Rosling warned that people can develop an overly dramatic picture of the world when bad news arrives without historical context, proportion or recognition of long-term progress.
The news rightly exposes danger, failure and injustice. Yet gradual improvement, competent institutions and millions of ordinary successes are less likely to become headlines.
This does not mean people’s concerns are imagined.
Cost pressures, housing insecurity, crime and difficulty accessing services are real. It does mean that a partial picture can become the whole picture in people’s minds.
Confidence grows when leaders face problems honestly, make progress visible and help people see what is working, what remains difficult and what can be done next.
Flinders describes wicked problems as complex, complicated and unpredictable. They do not have clear-cut solutions and cannot be addressed through one simple approach.
Cost of living, housing, healthcare, crime, social inequality and climate change cut across institutions, sectors and areas of expertise.
The university is studying these problems for a practical reason. It wants Australians to help shape the research agenda.
The survey seeks the answers to two central questions:
What complex or wicked problems do Australian people and communities face?
Which of those problems do Australians believe researchers should work towards solving?
Flinders then seeks to bring researchers from different disciplines together with government, industry and community to create knowledge and develop responses to the problems Australians say matter most.
That is an important approach.
Experts have knowledge and experience. People living with a problem understand how it feels, where systems fail and how different pressures combine in daily life.
Nationally, cost of living was selected as a major concern by 65 per cent of participants, housing affordability by 40 per cent, crime and safety by 37 per cent, access to healthcare and community care by 26 per cent, and the environment by 21 per cent.
Victorians were especially concerned about crime and safety. Western Australians and South Australians placed greater emphasis on housing affordability. Tasmanians were more concerned about access to healthcare. ACT residents expressed much stronger concern about the environment.
Where people live shapes what they worry about and how strongly they feel it.
It also shapes whether they believe the place they share is moving towards a better future.
Wicked problems can weaken optimism when people experience pressure without seeing progress.
Confidence grows when people can see that leaders are listening, institutions are learning and people are working together on practical solutions.
I have spent my adult life in and around public policy.
I have worked as a lawyer, a parliamentarian, and a government adviser. Today, I teach public policy at the Australian Public Service Academy.
For the past ten years, I have also devoted myself to studying optimism and fostering realistic and infectious optimism in leadership, especially in Australia.
I have sought to understand why some people and communities retain confidence, agency, and a belief in a better future, while others lose confidence that leaders and institutions can solve the problems they face.
These interests belong together.
Optimism is a belief that good things will happen and that things will work out in the end.
In public policy, that belief matters because optimists act. They face reality, see possibility and take the next wise step.
Again and again, I have seen that the quality of public policy depends on the quality of the questions people ask.
In my experience, Australians place great confidence in critical thinking, critique and criticism. Those disciplines matter. They help us test assumptions, identify risk and expose failure.
There is far less attention to Appreciative Inquiry and to questions that uncover strengths, capability, progress and possibility.
What is already working?
Why is it working?
Where are people succeeding despite difficulty?
What can be strengthened, adapted or expanded?
Critical thinking helps us see what is wrong. Appreciative Inquiry helps us see what is worth building upon.
Good public policy needs both.
What problem are we trying to solve?
Who experiences it most directly?
What evidence matters?
What are the risks, trade-offs and unintended consequences?
What can government influence?
What can communities, businesses and citizens do?
What is the next wise step?
This is why the purpose of the Flinders study interests me as much as the optimism results.
The researchers are not simply asking Australians what worries them.
They are asking which complex problems people most want researchers to help solve.
That is a better question.
It brings the voices of Australians into the research agenda. It asks universities to listen before deciding what matters. It invites researchers from different disciplines to work with government, industry and community on problems that people experience in daily life.
Wicked problems do not arrive neatly divided into government departments or university faculties.
Housing is connected to planning, finance, taxation, infrastructure, family formation and social cohesion.
The cost of living is connected to wages, productivity, energy, competition, housing, and household confidence.
Crime and safety are connected to policing, prevention, family support, education, mental health and trust in institutions.
Public policy improves when people understand those connections.
The hopeful feature of the Flinders work is that it begins with listening and moves towards action.
Australians identify what matters.
Researchers study the root causes.
People across disciplines work together.
Governments, businesses and communities test solutions.
That is optimism as a practical discipline.
The problems are real. So are Australia’s strengths, knowledge and capacity to act.
Are we heading in the right direction?
The next wise question could be: “What would give people greater confidence in the future direction of the state or territory they call home?”
Would you like to add your insights?